Jokowi - Game of Thrones
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‘Winter is coming’: Indonesia’s President Jokowi urges unity as he sounds warning for global economy

NUSA DUA – Drawing from popular television series Game Of Thrones, Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo warned that “winter is coming” when he urged countries to unite and cooperate, rather than compete, to address mounting issues from climate change to technology disruption.
Speaking on the International Monetary Fund-World Bank annual meetings plenary in Bali on Friday (Oct 12), Mr Joko said the world is seeing an imbalance of economic growth: The United States, the world’s largest economy, is enjoying robust expansion, while many others across the globe are struggling with various woes stemming from escalating trade tensions, industrial shocks due to technology disruption and market pressure.
Comparing the current state of global landscape, marked by heated rivalry among some economic powers, with the blockbuster TV series where several “great families” and “great houses” compete to claim the Iron Throne, Mr Joko warned that “the evil winter is coming” and it can bring massive destruction to the world.
“With the threat from evil winter, they finally realise it’s not important who will occupy the Iron Throne. The most important thing is the mutual power to defeat the evil winter so that global disaster won’t happen, so that the world doesn’t turn into a wrecked barren land that causes suffering to all of us,” Mr Joko said.
“I want to assure that we are entering the final session of global economic expansion that is full of rivalry and competition, and that can turn into something which is more critical than the global financial crisis 10 years ago.”
He added: “We depend on you all, the monetary and fiscal policymakers to keep the commitment of global cooperation.”
Mr Joko pointed out some pressing concerns that also require strong cooperation from countries to tackle: Climate change and a polluted food chain because of marine debris.
To curb the impact of climate change, for instance, the world may need to increase an annual investment in renewable energy by around 400 per cent globally, to save the planet and many lives, he said.
“Therefore, we need to ask if now is the right time to embrace rivalry and competition,” he said.
“Are we too busy competing against each other and fighting with each other that we fail to realise the big threat shadowing all of us, that there’s threat facing both rich and poor countries, large and small nations alike?”
He called on finance ministers and central bank governors to “cushion the blows from trade wars, technical disruption and market turmoil”.
“I do hope you will do your part to encourage leaders to address the situation appropriately. Monetary and fiscal policies that can shoulder trade wars, technology disruption and market uncertainties are necessary,” he said.
He then drew raucous laughter with a further reference to the fantasy show’s “Mother of Dragons” character – in a nod to IMF chief Christine Lagarde, who smiled broadly at the comment.
Ms Lagarde, who also spoke at the same event, acknowledged the global imbalances caused by trade, which despite having created prosperity, also caused a backlash, as too many people have been left out.
To cope with the changing economic landscape, she proposed a “new multilateralism”, an international cooperation which is “more inclusive, more people-centred and more result-oriented”.
Ms Lagarde cited an agenda to achieve Sustainable Development Goals as an example of where strong cooperation matters, as low-income countries need an extra US$520 billion (S$715 billion) each year for investment in vital sectors, such as health, education, water and infrastructure, by 2030.
“This partnership is integral to the new multilateralism – not least because tensions arising from exclusion and climate change do not respect national borders. In that sense, solidarity is self interest,” she said.
Kurs-Dollar-Melemah-Lagi-Rupiah-Makin-Kuat
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Be ready – financial crisis is near?

THE financial crisis affecting developing countries arrived in full-scale fashion in our region last week when the Indonesian economy experienced shocks reminiscent of the Asian crisis 20 years ago.
With the crisis coming so close to home, it is time to contemplate what may unfold in the near future and list measures to respond to each scenario, so that we are not taken by surprise.
The agreement reached with Singa­pore to postpone construction of the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed rail (HSR) project until end-May 2020 (with Malaysia paying S$15mil [RM45.1mil] in cost) was an achievement. It allows us a gap of two years before having to meet the mega project’s large expenses.
The next couple of years will be crucial, as the country will be in the midst of managing the “perfect storm” of servicing the trillion-ringgit government debt and preventing the government deficit from ballooning, while facing the challenges of the emerging global financial crisis.
In this tight situation, every billion ringgit counts; indeed every single ringgit counts.
As more discoveries are made of missing money, whether due to the 1MDB scandal or unpaid tax refunds, there is increasing pressure to save money and cut costs to avoid wider deficits.
So the HSR’s two-year deferment helps a lot. It may be like kicking the can down the street, but hopefully, the situation will improve by the end of the two years to allow the can to be picked up, especially if during the period, ways are found to cut the overall cost of the project.
Other projects too have to be scrutinised. Besides the East Coast Rail Link and Trans Sabah gas pipeline projects, there are many other projects whose costs have to be examined, and whose implementation can be postponed or cancelled.
Besides the scourge of overpricing and kickbacks, there is the over-riding concern that a financial crisis has to be averted.
Indonesia’s Energy Minister last week announced that energy projects worth US$25bil (RM103.64bil) and representing half of President Joko Widodo’s grand electricity programme, would be postponed or restructured. This is to save US$8bil (RM33.1bil) to US$10bil (rm41.45bil) on imports for the projects.
Indonesia is also raising tariffs to 10% on over 1,000 goods in a move to reduce the import bill.
These are some measures the country is forced to take as its economy enters full crisis mode. It could even face a meltdown of the 1998-99 scale. The rupiah fell to almost 15,000 per US dollar, the lowest point since the 1998 crisis.
Indonesia is vulnerable to a financial crisis due to its dual deficits (in the current account and government budget), large external debt and high foreign ownership of equity and government bonds.
Indonesia is caught in a vicious cycle, which is typical when financially liberalised countries follow orthodox fire-fighting policies. When the markets perceive that the external reserves could be insufficient to pay for imports, service debts and absorb potential capital outflows, the currency depreciates.
The perception sparks a self-fulfilling prophecy. The fall in currency makes it more difficult for the government and companies to service foreign loans, and also prompts investors to pull out their money.
In such a situation, the government raises the interest rate to incentivise investors to retain their money in the country. Indonesian interest rates have risen by 1.25 percentage points since May.
However, the side effect is that homebuyers and companies find it more difficult to service their mortgage and business loans. Credit slows down, and so does the economy. This in turn causes the currency to drop further, prompting more rounds of interest rate increases, which lead to loan defaults and bankruptcies.
The economy goes into recession, leading to more capital outflows, including by local people. The currency drops again, recession deepens, and the cycle continues.
Indonesia is still at the start of this cycle. Hopefully it will find the policy tools, including unorthodox ones that work, to avoid a long stay in the spiral. But Indonesia is by no means alone. Argentina and Turkey are deep in their crises, and more and more countries are suffering the contagion effect, including South Africa, India, Iran and the Philippines.
Following the 2008-09 global financial crisis that especially hit the United States and Europe, many hundreds of billions of dollars rushed to emerging markets, including Malaysia, in search of higher yields. The liquidity was created by quantitative easing (government pumping money into the banking system) and low interest rates in the US and Europe.
Now the funds are leaving the emerging economies and returning to the US. This is due to the US policy reversing to quantitative tightening, the rise in its interest rates, and fears of an emerging market crisis and a worsening trade war.
Developing countries vulnerable to currency decline, a pull-out of funds and a crisis are those with significant current account deficits, government budget deficits and debts; low foreign reserves; large external debt; and high foreign ownership of local bonds and equities.
Malaysia is so far safe but it is wise not to be complacent. It is not easy to escape contagion once it spreads.
A few warning signs have appeared, such as a narrowing of the current account surplus and significant portfolio investment outflows (both in the second quarter), and a weakening of the ringgit, besides the larger than previously reported government debt and the need to prevent the budget deficit from increasing.
The old Scout motto, “Be Prepared”, comes in handy at times like this. It is good to prepare now for any eventuality, so as to avoid being caught by surprise.
China Luncurkan Penyelidikan Impor Baja dari Indonesia
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China Luncurkan Penyelidikan Impor Baja dari Indonesia

BEIJING – Kementerian Perdagangan China menyatakan bahwa mereka telah meluncurkan penyelidikan anti-dumping terhadap impor billet baja tahan karat dan lembaran baja tahan karat panas dan pelat dari Uni Eropa (UE), Jepang, Korea Selatan dan Indonesia.

Seperti dilansir Reuters Senin (23/7/2018), langkah ini menyusul pengaduan oleh Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel (000825.SZ), dengan dukungan dari empat pabrik lainnya termasuk divisi baja stainless Baosteel. Shanxi Taigang tercatat menyumbang 25-35% produksi baja tahan karat China.

China mengimpor 703.000 ton produk tersebut pada tahun 2017, naik hampir 200% dari tahun sebelumnya. Tercatat, 98% kenaikan impor tersebut berasal dari daerah yang ditargetkan oleh penyelidikan.

Dalam dokumen yang dirilis Kementerian Perdagangan China, keluhan yang diajukan Shanxi Taigang menyatakan bahwa peningkatan luar biasa dalam impor tersebut telah menyebabkan kerusakan nyata di pasar China.

BAJA Optimistis Kinerja 2018 Membaik
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BAJA Optimistis Kinerja 2018 Membaik

 JAKARTA – Kementerian Perindustrian (Kemenperin) mencatat industri baja di Indonesia mengalami penguatan di tahun 2017, terutama didorong oleh maraknya pembangunan proyek infrastruktur. Industri baja diperkirakan akan terus tumbuh dengan rata-rata 6% per tahun sampai dengan tahun 2025.

“Berbekal strategi yang kami jalankan dalam menghadapi tantangan dan kondisi di tahun 2017 dan melihat peluang bisnis di tahun-tahun mendatang, Perseroan optimis bahwa kinerja tahun 2018 akan jauh lebih baik dari apa yang dicapai di tahun sebelumnya,” tegas Direktur Utama PT Saranacentral Bajatama Tbk (BAJA) Handaja Susanto dalam keterangan tertulisnya, Rabu (4/7/2018).

Perseroan telah menetapkan strategi penerapan efisiensi di segala kegiatan operasional. Khususnya efisiensi dalam penggunaan bahan baku, bahan penolong dan energi, serta pengembangan yang difokuskan untuk meningkatkan kualitas dan produktivitas yang akan memberi dampak pada peningkatan kinerja Perseroan.

Dengan melakukan itu semua, yang didukung oleh penerapan tata kelola yang baik dan sistem pengendalian yang kokoh dalam rangka melindungi aset-aset Perseroan untuk meningkatkan nilai para pemegang saham, maka Perseroan akan memperlihatkan kinerja yang semakin baik di tahun-tahun mendatang.

Penjualan baja Indonesia saat ini masih didominasi oleh permintaan dari sektor konstruksi, diikuti sektor otomotif, sektor migas, shipbuilding, permesinan dan industri elektronik. Kemampuan suplai industri baja (crude steel) dalam negeri sebesar 6,8 juta ton per tahun.

Karena itu, Indonesia masih harus mengimpor sebanyak 5,4 juta ton untuk memenuhi kebutuhan yang mencapai 12,94 juta ton per tahun. Kebutuhan baja yang meningkat setiap tahunnya harus diimbangi dengan tumbuhnya investasi baru di Indonesia, untuk mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap produk baja impor.

Tahun 2017, Perseroan berhasil membukukan kenaikan penjualan bersih sebesar 24,5% menjadi Rp1,22 triliun dari sebelumnya Rp978,84 miliar di tahun 2016. Penjualan yang dihasilkan Perseroan tahun 2017 merupakan kontribusi dari penjualan BjLS sebesar 49,8%, BjLAS sebesar 45,5%, Saranacolor 4,2%, sedangkan 0,4% merupakan nonproduksi.

Perseroan pada tahun 2017 harus menghadapi tantangan naiknya harga CRC di pasar global karena produsen utama baja dunia, yakni China, mengurangi suplai baja jenis CRC. Akibatnya harga jadi semakin mahal, yang menyebabkan beban pokok penjualan meningkat tajam sehingga Perseroan membukukan laba kotor yang jauh lebih rendah di tahun 2017.

Di samping itu, nilai tukar rupiah pada kuartal akhir 2017 cenderung melemah. Hal ini menyebabkan Perseroan membukukan kerugian kurs mata uang asing–bersih sebesar Rp5,1 miliar di tahun 2017. Sebagai hasilnya, Perseroan mencatat rugi tahun berjalan sebesar Rp22,98 miliar pada 2017. Dari sisi total aset, Perseroan juga mencatat jumlah aset yang turun tipis sebesar 3,7% menjadi Rp946,45 miliar di tahun 2017.

Perekonomian Indonesia tumbuh lebih kuat pada level 5,07% di tahun 2017, peningkatan dibandingkan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi 2016 sebesar 5,03%. Selain kenaikan harga komoditas, investor juga optimis tentang penguatan fundamental ekonomi Indonesia dan hasil kerja pemerintah pusat (terutama terkait pembangunan infrastruktur).

Semua ini tercermin dalam peningkatan peringkat kredit yang diberikan oleh Fitch Ratings kepada Indonesia dari BBB- ke BBB (stable outlook). Sama halnya, industri baja Indonesia juga mengalami penguatan di tahun 2017, yang terutama didorong oleh penguatan pada sektor konstruksi dan industri otomotif.

terpopuler-impor-dibatasi-untuk-lindungi-industri-baja
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TERPOPULER: Impor Dibatasi untuk Lindungi Industri Baja

CILEGON – Industri baja diakui sebagai industri dasar strategis yang harus dipertahankan karena menyangkut industri hilir yang memberikan kontribusi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi.

Apabila industri baja tidak diperkuat, saat ekonomi kembali booming serta konsumsi baja meningkat, maka neraca perdagangan bisa jebol karena semua produk baja harus diimpor